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Week 1: Chiefs @ Patriots Game Preview

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Written by <a href="/patriots/104-authors-staff/1342-matt-marcantonio.html"><span>Matt Marcantonio</span></a>

Sunday, 07 September 2008 03:48

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

Time: 1:00 PM ET
Where: Foxboro, Massachusetts
When: Sunday; September 7th

Three Players to Watch: Patriots

[1]. Matt Light ..:.. LT

Light has missed most of training camp and pre-season action with a nagging injury. However, he has been practicing this week and it slated to start at left tackle come Sunday. It did not take a brain sergent to realize that the Patriots offensive line just wasn't the same without Light and others like Stephen Neal and even Nick Kaczur. Quarterback Tom Brady has had Light protecting his blind side even since he came into the league so you better believe that Brady will be pleased that his security blanket is healthy and ready to go. Against the Chiefs he will be going up against Tamba Hali. In the past Light has struggled with speed rushers like Aaron Schobel, Jason Taylor, and Dwight Freeney, although his recent success on San Diego Chargers Shawn Merriman has caused the concern to dwindle to a minimum. Hali is more of a power rusher, who's strongest attribute is in the running game. However, Light could have trouble against the former Penn State star.

[2]. Tom Brady ..:.. QB

Brady should and will play against the Chiefs. The guy hasn't missed a start since he was named the starter of Drew Bledsoe in 2001. However, the injury should still be a concern, it is the same type of injury that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison had last season and we saw how that effected him all season. To make matters worse for Brady and the offense, right guard Stephen Neal is on the physically unable to perform list and won't see any game action until week seven. On the contrary, reserve guard Russ Hochstein has practiced this week and he is more then a viable option. Then raises the question on the chemistry. Brady hasn't played a game since the Super Bowl and players will tell you that practice speed is remarkably different from the actual game. History will tell us that this shouldn't be a problem as last season Randy Moss missed the entire pre-season and came out and absolutely dominated the New York Jets secondary. It's still worth noting. Lastly, Brady will be without Kevin Faulk, who he often uses for check downs in most situations. Should be very intriguing to watch how he plays.

[3]. Ellis Hobbs ..:.. CB

There is no hiding that I'm not the biggest Hobbs supporter out there but I do realize that this is his year. He has to be the number cornerback on this roster and he has to play up to the level of the Ty Law's and Asante Samuel's. Now the Patriots don't need him to get seven interceptions next season but us fans would just like any type of consistent play. He will have his hands full with Bowe this week as Bowe is a big, fast, physical receiver that Hobbs has had trouble with in the past. The Patriots will have to send safety help, whether it's James Sanders or Brandon Meriweather, as Bowe will be a load to tackle after the catch, especially for Hobbs. Things could only get worse for Hobbs is Larry Johnson has a big game as the Patriots will most likely throw eight men in the box which would leave to little help for Hobbs up top. Watching this game on Sunday, be prepared to see "hollywood" let up many receptions while making one good play every once in a while. The key for Hobbs is to not let up that one big play.

Three Players to Watch: Chiefs

[1]. Larry Johnson ..:.. RB

Johnson is one of the better backs in the league, there is not one person that will tell you different. While I feel the Chiefs coaching staff, especially Herm Edwards, put major trend on his tires for later on his career by letting him run the ball 416 times in 2006, that's not relevant right now. Johnson should see a heavy work load on Sunday and he should have great success. Through the four pre-season games the Patriots run defense looked very suspect to say the least. Now, many will claim that the Patriots were calling 'vanilla' plays and while that's true, so were the offensive teams. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran up the middle for most of a 17 plays opening touchdown drive and the Patriots just couldn't stop them. On paper the Patriots have a great front three with Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour and a respectable linebackers corp with Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Tedy Bruschi, and Mike Vrabel. However, you don't play the games on paper. The Chiefs will try to pound the Patriots up the middle as they just wouldn't have any success running off tackle with rookie Brenden Albert on Richard Seymour. The Patriots will put eight men in the box, including safety Rodney Harrison and they will force the Chiefs to pass. However, the scary part is that Johnson can and will have success even with the eight men in the box.

[2]. Brodie Croyle ..:.. QB

This is Croyle's year to shine. For the first time in his brief NFL career he won't have veteran Damon Huard breathing down his neck. Croyle will be able to make plays on sheer athleticism alone however his knowledge of the game has increased immensely since being drafted out of Alabama back in 2005. This is his second year with Dwayne Bowe and he has a nice compliment of other young receivers in Williams Franklin, Jeff Webb, and over time Kevin Robinson. While many will talk about Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson, and Matt Leinart as some top young single callers, however I feel Croyle is the best young quarterback in this league. Last year it was his team to manage and he was in charge of basically not screwing anything up. This season Croyle will have to make plays on his own, as teams will put eight men in the box. With a less then stellar corner back group look for Croyle to find Bowe, and find him a lot. They will establish the run with Larry Johnson early and often which will open the air waves for Croyle on play action passes. The Patriots cannot sleep on this guy, they just can't.

[3]. Tamba Hali ..:.. DE

After Herm Edwards reached for Hali in the 2006 draft, by drafting him 20th, fans were outraged. However Hali entered camp as a rookie and hasn't turned back. He has recorded 16 sacks over the last two seasons and has started every game during that span. You could argue that Hali has had a better career then first overall pick Mario Williams of the Houston Texans. Hali has recently moved from the left defensive end spot to the right where he'll now attack the quarterback from his blind spot. Although he is not considered a pass rusher, he still has the tools to be effective in that area. Sunday he'll go up against Matt Light who we touched upon earlier in this preview. Light has missed all of the pre-season and it will tough early on as he has to adjust back to the speed of the game. Hali should be able to win the initial battle at the line of scrimmage and make plays in the running game however, if Light has to take a step back and pass block, I'd give the edge to Light.

Keys to Success: Patriots

[1]. Force Kansas City to Pass

I've already talked about a million times in my preview; Larry Johnson is the key. In a perfect world the Patriots will contain Johnson and force Croyle to throw the ball. The Chiefs have a plethora of unproven, young receivers so it's hard to take an angle on the issue. Dwayne Bowe will cause problems for Hobbs, that's obvious, but it gets to the point where your controlling the Chiefs running game while allowing Bowe to get eight, nine, ten yard receptions. The Chiefs will not win this game by having Croyle throw the ball 25 times, that I can tell you. So the Patriots must stop the running game and stop it early. Force the Chiefs to pass the ball when they don't want to and then be prepared to take the good with the bad, because at the end of the day you will be hard pressed to find the Chiefs win this game by consistently passing the ball on the Patriots.

[2]. Offensive Continuity

The offense hasn't looked particularly good at any point of the pre-season but obviously the Patriots were without Brady. Now with Brady back at the helm it will be very interesting to see how this offense performs. It will be imperative for them to establish a rhythm, while using a balanced attack with the short passing game with Wes Welker and the running game with all three backs in Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and LaMont Jordan. I don't think anyone is expecting the Patriots offense to come out and score 40 plus points, but they won't have to. They will have to be consistent and keep the defense off the field.

[3]. Protect Number 12

It's already well documented that the right side of the offensive line will be without Stephen Neal. Backup veteran Russ Hochstein should look to fill his spot, as Nick Kaczur with play right tackle. Hochstein is a very well respect player in this league and he has been a very good fill in player from time to time, so the Neal loss could be overblown by the media. The Chiefs must pressure Brady if they want to have any success defensively. While both defensive ends, Hali and Turk McBride, are not pass rushing specialists they both have the skill set to get to the passer, in this case Brady. Defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey will most likely be doubled team so the linebackers could be roaming free. However, you have to realize that if the Chiefs apply extra pressure into reaching Brady that either Welker or Ben Watson will be open underneath the coverage. Now, I'd assume the Chiefs would like to get to Brady without adding any more blitzes, but that is very unlikely. It's basically picking your poison, attempt to pressure Brady, but beware of the short, quick passing game.

Key to Success: Chiefs

[1]. Run, run, run, and run

Larry Johnson is the key to the entire game. The Chiefs must rides him the entire way, not only this game but over the season. The Patriots did only allow 98 rushing yards a game last season however, they really faced no backs capable of breaking out like a Johnson. It would only help the Chiefs if they could establish a solid running game earlier on in the first quarter as it would allow for the Patriots to stuff the box as options would become available for Croyle. You may think Johnson is the only running back that can hurt this Patriots team, well think again. Rookie Jamaal Charles is the perfect compliment to Johnson and he will help the Chiefs in many ways, including the short passing game where he will be able to catch passes at will out of the backfield. Kolby Smith is another solid option to have, as his running style has given the Patriots problems in past play. However, at the end of the day it's all on Johnson and that questionable Chiefs offensive line.

[2]. Contain Big Plays

Patrick Surtain has given the Patriots fits over the year back when he was with the Dolphins and although this is only the second time the Patriots will have played Surtain since he joined the Chiefs, he still has the ability to play up to level he has against this Patriots team. Along with Surtain, rookie Brandon Flowers will man the other side of the field. Now it's key for the Chiefs to not give up the big play, especially to Randy Moss. The New York Giants showed that you can give up the shorter routes as they did with Wes Welker in the Super Bowl, but you better not give up the big play to Moss, as they didn't. This also boils down to the pressure guys like Hali, McBride, and Dorsey can generate to challenge the right side of the line and force Brady to dump it off to a Welker or Ben Watson underneath.

[3]. Win the Battle at Line of Scrimmage

This goes for both sides of the ball. For the Chiefs to be successful they must win the line of scrimmage as it will only help both their running game and defensive ball pressure. It will be very tough for the Chiefs offensive line, which is horribly inconsistent, to hold off Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour for longer then a quick three step drop by Croyle, therefore if they can win the initial contact with these three they should be able to buy more time for Croyle and open up more holes for Johnson. Defensively, they do have some players that could cause problems to Russ Hochstein and others; Ron Edwards is a nifty ole' veteran who although leaves a lot to be desired with his quickness, has very deceptive strength. Another guy to watch is Tank Tyler, a physical marvel of a defender, he is probably one of the strongest defensive lineman in the league today. He does have a flawed technique, but he is someone to keep an eye on as he should rotate in with an Alex Boone or Glenn Dorsey.

Opposing Perspective

ryknowssd, of footballsfuture.com

Quote:

This should be a very interesting matchup for both teams for a plethora of reasons. The Patriots will have several key players either miss the game (Neal, Faulk), have a chance of missing the game due to injuries (Welker, Brady, Light) or play without much time to practice and build chemistry with their teammates (Brady). Their defense has been very suspect in every aspect so far in preseason and the same can be said about their special teams play. Even with that being the case, the Pats are easily the most dangerous team in the NFL...and that might mean that they can piece it together in the 11th hour to win their first game of the regular season. On the other side, the Chiefs have a lot of new toys to play with and are a completely different team than they were last year. Not only is there a big question mark hanging over young QB Brodie Croyle's head, but the same can be said about the rest of their young roster.

The bottom line is that the Chiefs have nothing to lose, so they're going to bring it. If they can't win the game, no one will think anything of it because no one thinks they have a shot in hell of posting a "W". If they win, then it will be the upset of the century. Well, that is...unless the Patriots are forced to play without several key starters (Brady is obviously the biggest name that comes to mind, as unlikely as it seems). I expect to see the Chiefs using a lot of play action in this game and letting Brodie Croyle air it out early in the game to catch the Pats off guard. I also expect to see Tom Brady to look a little rusty and out of sync with his receivers because of the lack of time he's been able to practice. After that, a balanced attack between Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe should be featured on the offensive side of the ball for the Chiefs. On defense, I see the Chiefs shutting down the Patriots' running game, allowing around 2.5 to 3.0 yards per carry...and forcing Brady to use his check down options in the passing game. There should be two or three big plays (20+ yards) by each team's offense, which should make for a very exciting game. In the end, I think the winner of this game will be whoever can run the ball late in the game...and I don't see the Pats being able to do that. I see it being much, much closer than most people think and I know I'm in the definite minority here, but I'm predicting a Chiefs win by the score of 27-24.

Key Matchup Battle

vs.

[WR]. Dwayne Bowe ..:.. Kansas City Chiefs

The LSU product has terrific size against Hobbs, and will be able to use it and use it well. Bowe is a tough player to gameplan against because he is so well rounded. If you give him space off the line of scrimmage he will catch the ball underneath and make you miss in the open field with his strength. If you jam him, he will burn you deep. He'll be covered by Hobbs, who is not shy when giving opposing receivers manageable cushions. Therefore the deep ball should be limited, however Bowe will be able to catch at will underneath the defense and look for him to break one free as it would take three people to bring him down after the catch.

[CB]. Ellis Hobbs ..:.. New England Patriots

Hobbs' speed should do him some good justice Sunday, as he should be able to stay in the area of Bowe. The problem with Hobbs is the cushion he gives wide outs. He will play the way he plays which is around eight yards off the receiver. Hobbs will give up catches to Bowe, there is no denying that, but it is very important for Hobbs to bring down Bowe before he breaks a deep gain off on the defense. In the past Hobbs hasn't been the most reliable tackler so watch for a guy like Meriweather to shade over and help out in that aspect of the game. For Hobbs, he can't give up the big play, it's as simple as that; Bend but don't break.

Edge: Kansas City

Overview

The last time the two teams met was back on November 27th, 2005, when the Chiefs beat the Patriots 26-16. Both teams entered that contest with a 6-4 record, and many believed the Chiefs would put up a good fight but no one really thought they would beat the Pats.. If you remember, when the teams met in 2002, the Patriots beat the Chiefs in overtime, as they gave them everything they could handle, headed by Priest Holmes. In that 2005 meeting, Tom Brady threw four interceptions and the defense surrendered 420 yard to Larry Johnson and company. However, it's worth noting that both Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk didn't not participate in the game, along with receivers David Givens and Bethel Johnson.

If the past in any indication about Sunday, the Patriots could be in a surprise.

Last Three Meetings
2005: 26-16; Kansas City
2004: 27-19; New England
2002: 41-38; New England

Conclusion: Prediction

It would appear that the weather should be a factor come Sunday, so I would expect both teams to heavily rely on the running game. Granted, New England is New England, and they will pass the ball and pass it a lot, but this could be a good game to hide Brady's injury as you won't have to see him throw the ball 30 times in this game.

At the end of the day the Patriots cannot lose this game, it's that simple. There will be no bigger letdown. Even a seven point victory isn't enough, now while I'll take a win any day of the week the outsiders to this organization will not be satisfied. If you shut down Larry Johnson you will win this game. And, I'm sure Belichick knows that.

Score: 28-20 Patriots

Player of the Game

LaMont Jordan [RB; Patriots]:

7 rushes, 45 yards, 6.4 avg
5 rec, 53 yards, 1 touchdown

Jordan will take over Faulk's role and he will do it well. The Chiefs linebackers don't cover that well and I fully expect Brady to check down to Jordan a lot in this game, especially if the whether is poor.

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Week 1: Chiefs @ Patriots Game Preview
Sunday, 07 September 2008
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0) Time: 1:00 PM ET Where: Foxboro, Massachusetts When: Sunday; September 7th ...